1992 general election

Held on 1992-04-09. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party	Share (%)
Conservative Party	42.8%
Labour Party	35.2%
Liberal Democrats	18.3%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster

Final poll

Days before

Parties scored

Difference

Nielsen

1992-03-28

2.8 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Labour Party	39.6%	35.2%	+4.4 percentage points
Conservative Party	39.8%	42.8%	-3.0 percentage points
Liberal Democrats	17.2%	18.3%	-1.1 percentage points

Gallup

1992-04-07

2.9 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Conservative Party	38.5%	42.8%	-4.3 percentage points
Labour Party	38.0%	35.2%	+2.8 percentage points
Liberal Democrats	20.0%	18.3%	+1.7 percentage points

ICM

1992-04-08

3.1 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Conservative Party	38.0%	42.8%	-4.8 percentage points
Labour Party	38.0%	35.2%	+2.8 percentage points
Liberal Democrats	20.0%	18.3%	+1.7 percentage points

NMR

1992-03-24

3.1 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Conservative Party	38.0%	42.8%	-4.8 percentage points
Labour Party	39.0%	35.2%	+3.8 percentage points
Liberal Democrats	19.0%	18.3%	+0.7 percentage points

Ipsos MORI

1992-04-07

3.4 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Conservative Party	38.0%	42.8%	-4.8 percentage points
Labour Party	39.0%	35.2%	+3.8 percentage points
Liberal Democrats	20.0%	18.3%	+1.7 percentage points

Harris

1992-04-04

3.8 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Conservative Party	37.0%	42.8%	-5.8 percentage points
Labour Party	38.0%	35.2%	+2.8 percentage points
Liberal Democrats	21.0%	18.3%	+2.7 percentage points

NOP

1992-04-07

4.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Labour Party	42.0%	35.2%	+6.8 percentage points
Conservative Party	39.0%	42.8%	-3.8 percentage points
Liberal Democrats	17.0%	18.3%	-1.3 percentage points

ASL

1992-04-03

5.1 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Conservative Party	35.0%	42.8%	-7.8 percentage points
Liberal Democrats	23.0%	18.3%	+4.7 percentage points
Labour Party	38.0%	35.2%	+2.8 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.