2005 general election

Held on 2005-05-05. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party	Share (%)
Labour Party	36.2%
Conservative Party	33.2%
Liberal Democrats	22.6%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster

Final poll

Days before

Parties scored

Difference

NOP

2005-05-01

0.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Democrats	23.0%	22.6%	+0.4 percentage points
Conservative Party	33.0%	33.2%	-0.2 percentage points
Labour Party	36.0%	36.2%	-0.2 percentage points

Ipsos MORI

2005-05-03

0.8 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Labour Party	38.0%	36.2%	+1.8 percentage points
Liberal Democrats	23.0%	22.6%	+0.4 percentage points
Conservative Party	33.0%	33.2%	-0.2 percentage points

Harris

2005-05-01

1.1 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Labour Party	38.0%	36.2%	+1.8 percentage points
Conservative Party	34.0%	33.2%	+0.8 percentage points
Liberal Democrats	22.0%	22.6%	-0.6 percentage points

YouGov

2005-05-03

1.1 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Democrats	24.0%	22.6%	+1.4 percentage points
Conservative Party	32.0%	33.2%	-1.2 percentage points
Labour Party	37.0%	36.2%	+0.8 percentage points

ICM

2005-05-01

1.2 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Labour Party	38.0%	36.2%	+1.8 percentage points
Conservative Party	32.0%	33.2%	-1.2 percentage points
Liberal Democrats	22.0%	22.6%	-0.6 percentage points

BPIX

2005-04-28

1.5 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Conservative Party	31.0%	33.2%	-2.2 percentage points
Labour Party	38.0%	36.2%	+1.8 percentage points
Liberal Democrats	22.0%	22.6%	-0.6 percentage points

Populus

2005-05-02

1.5 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Labour Party	38.0%	36.2%	+1.8 percentage points
Liberal Democrats	21.0%	22.6%	-1.6 percentage points
Conservative Party	32.0%	33.2%	-1.2 percentage points

ComRes

2005-04-23

1.8 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Labour Party	39.0%	36.2%	+2.8 percentage points
Conservative Party	31.0%	33.2%	-2.2 percentage points
Liberal Democrats	23.0%	22.6%	+0.4 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.