Polls from Populus
Populus has been polling since 2003 and has published 318 polls so far; the latest was on 10 December 2018.
Parties
| Pollster | Share (%) | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Lab | 41.0% | 2018-12-10 |
| Con | 38.0% | 2018-12-10 |
| LD | 7.0% | 2018-12-10 |
| UKIP | 6.0% | 2018-12-10 |
| Green | 4.0% | 2018-12-10 |
Coalitions
No polls available yet.
Accuracy at past elections
Average error 1.8 percentage points across 3 elections.
Systematic over- and understatement, per party
Mean signed difference between this pollster’s final poll and the result. A positive figure means the party was stated higher than it finished.
| Party | Mean difference | Elections |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | -1.9 percentage points | 3 |
| Liberal Democrats | +1.2 percentage points | 3 |
| Green Party | +1.2 percentage points | 1 |
| UK Independence Party | +1.1 percentage points | 1 |
| Labour Party | +0.6 percentage points | 3 |
Per election
| Election | Final poll | Days before | Parties scored | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 general election | 2015-05-05 | 2 | 5 | 2.1 percentage points |
| 2010 general election | 2010-05-04 | 2 | 3 | 1.7 percentage points |
| 2005 general election | 2005-05-02 | 3 | 3 | 1.5 percentage points |
How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.