2010 general election

Held on 2010-05-06. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party	Share (%)
Conservative Party	36.9%
Labour Party	29.7%
Liberal Democrats	23.6%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster

Final poll

Days before

Parties scored

Difference

RNB

2010-04-30

1.4 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Democrats	26.0%	23.6%	+2.4 percentage points
Labour Party	28.0%	29.7%	-1.7 percentage points
Conservative Party	37.0%	36.9%	+0.1 percentage points

ICM

2010-05-03

1.7 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Democrats	26.0%	23.6%	+2.4 percentage points
Labour Party	28.0%	29.7%	-1.7 percentage points
Conservative Party	36.0%	36.9%	-0.9 percentage points

Ipsos MORI

2010-05-05

1.7 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Democrats	27.0%	23.6%	+3.4 percentage points
Conservative Party	36.0%	36.9%	-0.9 percentage points
Labour Party	29.0%	29.7%	-0.7 percentage points

Populus

2010-05-04

1.7 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Democrats	27.0%	23.6%	+3.4 percentage points
Labour Party	28.0%	29.7%	-1.7 percentage points
Conservative Party	37.0%	36.9%	+0.1 percentage points

Harris

2010-05-04

2.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Democrats	27.0%	23.6%	+3.4 percentage points
Conservative Party	35.0%	36.9%	-1.9 percentage points
Labour Party	29.0%	29.7%	-0.7 percentage points

ComRes

2010-05-04

2.1 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Democrats	28.0%	23.6%	+4.4 percentage points
Labour Party	28.0%	29.7%	-1.7 percentage points
Conservative Party	37.0%	36.9%	+0.1 percentage points

Opinium

2010-05-04

2.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Labour Party	27.0%	29.7%	-2.7 percentage points
Liberal Democrats	26.0%	23.6%	+2.4 percentage points
Conservative Party	35.0%	36.9%	-1.9 percentage points

YouGov

2010-05-04

2.7 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Democrats	28.0%	23.6%	+4.4 percentage points
Conservative Party	35.0%	36.9%	-1.9 percentage points
Labour Party	28.0%	29.7%	-1.7 percentage points

Angus Reid

2010-05-04

4.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Labour Party	24.0%	29.7%	-5.7 percentage points
Liberal Democrats	29.0%	23.6%	+5.4 percentage points
Conservative Party	36.0%	36.9%	-0.9 percentage points

BPIX

2010-04-30

4.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Democrats	30.0%	23.6%	+6.4 percentage points
Conservative Party	34.0%	36.9%	-2.9 percentage points
Labour Party	27.0%	29.7%	-2.7 percentage points

TNS BMRB

2010-04-29

4.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Democrats	29.0%	23.6%	+5.4 percentage points
Conservative Party	33.0%	36.9%	-3.9 percentage points
Labour Party	27.0%	29.7%	-2.7 percentage points

OnePoll

2010-04-29

8.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Labour Party	21.0%	29.7%	-8.7 percentage points
Liberal Democrats	32.0%	23.6%	+8.4 percentage points
Conservative Party	30.0%	36.9%	-6.9 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.