Latest poll: YouGov, 1 day ago

2015 general election

Held on 2015-05-07. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party Share (%)
Conservative Party 37.7%
Labour Party 31.2%
UK Independence Party 12.9%
Liberal Democrats 8.1%
Green Party 3.8%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster Final poll Days before Parties scored Difference
Survation 2015-05-06 1 5 1.2 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Liberal Democrats 10.0% 8.1% +1.9 percentage points
UK Independence Party 11.0% 12.9% -1.9 percentage points
Green Party 5.0% 3.8% +1.2 percentage points
Conservative Party 37.0% 37.7% -0.7 percentage points
Labour Party 31.0% 31.2% -0.2 percentage points
ComRes 2015-05-06 1 5 1.5 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 34.0% 31.2% +2.8 percentage points
Conservative Party 35.0% 37.7% -2.7 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 9.0% 8.1% +0.9 percentage points
UK Independence Party 12.0% 12.9% -0.9 percentage points
Green Party 4.0% 3.8% +0.2 percentage points
Ipsos MORI 2015-05-05 2 5 1.7 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 35.0% 31.2% +3.8 percentage points
UK Independence Party 11.0% 12.9% -1.9 percentage points
Conservative Party 36.0% 37.7% -1.7 percentage points
Green Party 5.0% 3.8% +1.2 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 8.0% 8.1% -0.1 percentage points
Opinium 2015-05-04 3 5 1.7 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 34.0% 31.2% +2.8 percentage points
Conservative Party 35.0% 37.7% -2.7 percentage points
Green Party 6.0% 3.8% +2.2 percentage points
UK Independence Party 12.0% 12.9% -0.9 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 8.0% 8.1% -0.1 percentage points
TNS BMRB 2015-04-30 7 5 1.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 33.0% 37.7% -4.7 percentage points
Green Party 6.0% 3.8% +2.2 percentage points
UK Independence Party 14.0% 12.9% +1.1 percentage points
Labour Party 32.0% 31.2% +0.8 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 8.0% 8.1% -0.1 percentage points
BMG 2015-05-03 4 5 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 34.0% 37.7% -3.7 percentage points
Labour Party 34.0% 31.2% +2.8 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 10.0% 8.1% +1.9 percentage points
UK Independence Party 12.0% 12.9% -0.9 percentage points
Green Party 4.0% 3.8% +0.2 percentage points
YouGov 2015-05-04 3 5 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 34.0% 37.7% -3.7 percentage points
Labour Party 34.0% 31.2% +2.8 percentage points
Green Party 5.0% 3.8% +1.2 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 9.0% 8.1% +0.9 percentage points
UK Independence Party 12.0% 12.9% -0.9 percentage points
ICM 2015-05-03 4 5 2.0 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 35.0% 31.2% +3.8 percentage points
Conservative Party 35.0% 37.7% -2.7 percentage points
UK Independence Party 11.0% 12.9% -1.9 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 9.0% 8.1% +0.9 percentage points
Green Party 3.0% 3.8% -0.8 percentage points
Populus 2015-05-05 2 5 2.1 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 33.0% 37.7% -4.7 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 10.0% 8.1% +1.9 percentage points
Labour Party 33.0% 31.2% +1.8 percentage points
Green Party 5.0% 3.8% +1.2 percentage points
UK Independence Party 14.0% 12.9% +1.1 percentage points
SurveyMonkey 2015-04-30 7 5 2.5 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Green Party 8.0% 3.8% +4.2 percentage points
Conservative Party 34.0% 37.7% -3.7 percentage points
Labour Party 28.0% 31.2% -3.2 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 7.0% 8.1% -1.1 percentage points
UK Independence Party 13.0% 12.9% +0.1 percentage points
Lord Ashcroft 2015-05-05 2 5 2.5 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 33.0% 37.7% -4.7 percentage points
Green Party 6.0% 3.8% +2.2 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 10.0% 8.1% +1.9 percentage points
UK Independence Party 11.0% 12.9% -1.9 percentage points
Labour Party 33.0% 31.2% +1.8 percentage points
Panelbase 2015-05-01 6 5 2.6 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 31.0% 37.7% -6.7 percentage points
UK Independence Party 16.0% 12.9% +3.1 percentage points
Labour Party 33.0% 31.2% +1.8 percentage points
Green Party 5.0% 3.8% +1.2 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 8.0% 8.1% -0.1 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.