Latest poll: YouGov, 1 day ago

2019 general election

Held on 2019-12-12. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party Share (%)
Conservative Party 44.7%
Labour Party 32.9%
Liberal Democrats 11.8%
Green Party 2.8%
Reform UK 2.1%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster Final poll Days before Parties scored Difference
Ipsos MORI 2019-12-09 3 5 0.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 44.0% 44.7% -0.7 percentage points
Green Party 3.0% 2.8% +0.2 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 12.0% 11.8% +0.2 percentage points
Labour Party 33.0% 32.9% +0.1 percentage points
Reform UK 2.0% 2.1% -0.1 percentage points
Opinium 2019-12-10 2 5 0.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Green Party 2.0% 2.8% -0.8 percentage points
Conservative Party 45.0% 44.7% +0.3 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 12.0% 11.8% +0.2 percentage points
Labour Party 33.0% 32.9% +0.1 percentage points
Reform UK 2.0% 2.1% -0.1 percentage points
Number Cruncher Politics 2019-12-08 4 5 0.6 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 43.0% 44.7% -1.7 percentage points
Reform UK 3.0% 2.1% +0.9 percentage points
Green Party 3.0% 2.8% +0.2 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 12.0% 11.8% +0.2 percentage points
Labour Party 33.0% 32.9% +0.1 percentage points
Verian 2019-12-09 3 5 0.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Liberal Democrats 13.0% 11.8% +1.2 percentage points
Labour Party 32.0% 32.9% -0.9 percentage points
Reform UK 3.0% 2.1% +0.9 percentage points
Conservative Party 44.0% 44.7% -0.7 percentage points
Green Party 3.0% 2.8% +0.2 percentage points
YouGov 2019-12-05 7 5 0.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 43.0% 44.7% -1.7 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 13.0% 11.8% +1.2 percentage points
Reform UK 3.0% 2.1% +0.9 percentage points
Green Party 3.0% 2.8% +0.2 percentage points
Labour Party 33.0% 32.9% +0.1 percentage points
Survation 2019-12-10 2 5 1.0 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Liberal Democrats 9.3% 11.8% -2.5 percentage points
Reform UK 3.1% 2.1% +1.0 percentage points
Labour Party 33.7% 32.9% +0.8 percentage points
Green Party 3.2% 2.8% +0.4 percentage points
Conservative Party 44.5% 44.7% -0.2 percentage points
Deltapoll 2019-12-09 3 5 1.1 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 35.0% 32.9% +2.1 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 10.0% 11.8% -1.8 percentage points
Reform UK 3.0% 2.1% +0.9 percentage points
Conservative Party 45.0% 44.7% +0.3 percentage points
Green Party 3.0% 2.8% +0.2 percentage points
Panelbase 2019-12-10 2 5 1.1 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 43.0% 44.7% -1.7 percentage points
Green Party 4.0% 2.8% +1.2 percentage points
Labour Party 34.0% 32.9% +1.1 percentage points
Reform UK 3.0% 2.1% +0.9 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 11.0% 11.8% -0.8 percentage points
Savanta 2019-12-09 3 5 1.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 36.0% 32.9% +3.1 percentage points
Conservative Party 43.0% 44.7% -1.7 percentage points
Reform UK 3.0% 2.1% +0.9 percentage points
Green Party 2.0% 2.8% -0.8 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 12.0% 11.8% +0.2 percentage points
Qriously 2019-12-05 7 5 1.4 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 30.0% 32.9% -2.9 percentage points
Conservative Party 43.0% 44.7% -1.7 percentage points
Green Party 4.0% 2.8% +1.2 percentage points
Reform UK 3.0% 2.1% +0.9 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 12.0% 11.8% +0.2 percentage points
ICM 2019-12-06 6 5 1.5 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 36.0% 32.9% +3.1 percentage points
Conservative Party 42.0% 44.7% -2.7 percentage points
Reform UK 3.0% 2.1% +0.9 percentage points
Green Party 2.0% 2.8% -0.8 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 12.0% 11.8% +0.2 percentage points
ComRes 2019-12-09 3 5 1.7 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 41.0% 44.7% -3.7 percentage points
Labour Party 36.0% 32.9% +3.1 percentage points
Reform UK 3.0% 2.1% +0.9 percentage points
Green Party 2.0% 2.8% -0.8 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 12.0% 11.8% +0.2 percentage points
BMG 2019-12-06 6 5 1.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 41.0% 44.7% -3.7 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 14.0% 11.8% +2.2 percentage points
Green Party 4.0% 2.8% +1.2 percentage points
Labour Party 32.0% 32.9% -0.9 percentage points
Reform UK 3.0% 2.1% +0.9 percentage points
Focaldata 2019-11-27 15 5 1.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 42.0% 44.7% -2.7 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 14.0% 11.8% +2.2 percentage points
Reform UK 4.0% 2.1% +1.9 percentage points
Green Party 4.0% 2.8% +1.2 percentage points
Labour Party 34.0% 32.9% +1.1 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.