Latest poll: YouGov, 1 day ago

2024 general election

Held on 2024-07-04. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party Share (%)
Labour Party 34.7%
Conservative Party 24.4%
Reform UK 14.7%
Liberal Democrats 12.6%
Green Party 6.9%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster Final poll Days before Parties scored Difference
Norstat 2024-07-01 3 5 1.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 37.0% 34.7% +2.3 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 11.0% 12.6% -1.6 percentage points
Reform UK 16.0% 14.7% +1.3 percentage points
Green Party 6.0% 6.9% -0.9 percentage points
Conservative Party 24.0% 24.4% -0.4 percentage points
Verian 2024-06-28 6 5 1.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 21.0% 24.4% -3.4 percentage points
Labour Party 36.0% 34.7% +1.3 percentage points
Reform UK 16.0% 14.7% +1.3 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 13.0% 12.6% +0.4 percentage points
Green Party 7.0% 6.9% +0.1 percentage points
More in Common 2024-06-28 6 5 1.5 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 39.0% 34.7% +4.3 percentage points
Green Party 5.0% 6.9% -1.9 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 12.0% 12.6% -0.6 percentage points
Conservative Party 24.0% 24.4% -0.4 percentage points
Reform UK 15.0% 14.7% +0.3 percentage points
JL Partners 2024-07-02 2 5 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 38.0% 34.7% +3.3 percentage points
Reform UK 17.0% 14.7% +2.3 percentage points
Green Party 5.0% 6.9% -1.9 percentage points
Conservative Party 23.0% 24.4% -1.4 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 13.0% 12.6% +0.4 percentage points
YouGov 2024-06-25 9 5 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 20.0% 24.4% -4.4 percentage points
Labour Party 37.0% 34.7% +2.3 percentage points
Reform UK 17.0% 14.7% +2.3 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 13.0% 12.6% +0.4 percentage points
Green Party 7.0% 6.9% +0.1 percentage points
BMG 2024-06-30 4 5 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 39.0% 34.7% +4.3 percentage points
Conservative Party 22.0% 24.4% -2.4 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 11.0% 12.6% -1.6 percentage points
Reform UK 16.0% 14.7% +1.3 percentage points
Green Party 7.0% 6.9% +0.1 percentage points
We Think 2024-07-02 2 5 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 41.0% 34.7% +6.3 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 11.0% 12.6% -1.6 percentage points
Conservative Party 23.0% 24.4% -1.4 percentage points
Reform UK 15.0% 14.7% +0.3 percentage points
Green Party 7.0% 6.9% +0.1 percentage points
Stonehaven 2024-06-28 6 5 2.1 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 40.9% 34.7% +6.2 percentage points
Conservative Party 22.7% 24.4% -1.7 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 11.4% 12.6% -1.2 percentage points
Reform UK 15.9% 14.7% +1.2 percentage points
Green Party 6.8% 6.9% -0.1 percentage points
Find Out Now 2024-07-03 1 5 2.1 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 20.0% 24.4% -4.4 percentage points
Reform UK 18.0% 14.7% +3.3 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 11.0% 12.6% -1.6 percentage points
Green Party 8.0% 6.9% +1.1 percentage points
Labour Party 35.0% 34.7% +0.3 percentage points
Survation 2024-07-01 3 5 2.1 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 20.0% 24.4% -4.4 percentage points
Labour Party 38.0% 34.7% +3.3 percentage points
Reform UK 17.0% 14.7% +2.3 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 12.0% 12.6% -0.6 percentage points
Green Party 7.0% 6.9% +0.1 percentage points
Focaldata 2024-06-27 7 5 2.2 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 40.1% 34.7% +5.4 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 9.4% 12.6% -3.2 percentage points
Green Party 5.8% 6.9% -1.1 percentage points
Reform UK 15.5% 14.7% +0.8 percentage points
Conservative Party 23.9% 24.4% -0.5 percentage points
Number Cruncher Politics 2024-07-03 1 5 2.2 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 41.0% 34.7% +6.3 percentage points
Reform UK 13.0% 14.7% -1.7 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 11.0% 12.6% -1.6 percentage points
Conservative Party 23.0% 24.4% -1.4 percentage points
Green Party 7.0% 6.9% +0.1 percentage points
Deltapoll 2024-06-29 5 5 2.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 39.0% 34.7% +4.3 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 10.0% 12.6% -2.6 percentage points
Conservative Party 22.0% 24.4% -2.4 percentage points
Reform UK 17.0% 14.7% +2.3 percentage points
Green Party 7.0% 6.9% +0.1 percentage points
Ipsos MORI 2024-07-01 3 5 2.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 19.0% 24.4% -5.4 percentage points
Labour Party 37.0% 34.7% +2.3 percentage points
Green Party 9.0% 6.9% +2.1 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 11.0% 12.6% -1.6 percentage points
Reform UK 15.0% 14.7% +0.3 percentage points
Techne 2024-06-28 6 5 2.5 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 40.0% 34.7% +5.3 percentage points
Conservative Party 21.0% 24.4% -3.4 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 11.0% 12.6% -1.6 percentage points
Reform UK 16.0% 14.7% +1.3 percentage points
Green Party 6.0% 6.9% -0.9 percentage points
Whitestone Insight 2024-07-01 3 5 2.5 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 21.0% 24.4% -3.4 percentage points
Labour Party 38.0% 34.7% +3.3 percentage points
Reform UK 18.0% 14.7% +3.3 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 10.0% 12.6% -2.6 percentage points
Green Party 7.0% 6.9% +0.1 percentage points
Redfield & Wilton 2024-06-28 6 5 2.7 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 41.0% 34.7% +6.3 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 10.0% 12.6% -2.6 percentage points
Conservative Party 22.0% 24.4% -2.4 percentage points
Reform UK 16.0% 14.7% +1.3 percentage points
Green Party 6.0% 6.9% -0.9 percentage points
Opinium 2024-07-01 3 5 2.7 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Labour Party 41.0% 34.7% +6.3 percentage points
Conservative Party 21.0% 24.4% -3.4 percentage points
Reform UK 17.0% 14.7% +2.3 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 11.0% 12.6% -1.6 percentage points
Green Party 7.0% 6.9% +0.1 percentage points
Lord Ashcroft 2024-06-27 7 5 2.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 19.0% 24.4% -5.4 percentage points
Labour Party 38.0% 34.7% +3.3 percentage points
Reform UK 18.0% 14.7% +3.3 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 11.0% 12.6% -1.6 percentage points
Green Party 8.0% 6.9% +1.1 percentage points
Savanta 2024-07-02 2 5 3.1 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 20.0% 24.4% -4.4 percentage points
Labour Party 39.0% 34.7% +4.3 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 10.0% 12.6% -2.6 percentage points
Reform UK 17.0% 14.7% +2.3 percentage points
Green Party 5.0% 6.9% -1.9 percentage points
People Polling 2024-07-02 2 5 3.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party 16.0% 24.4% -8.4 percentage points
Reform UK 20.0% 14.7% +5.3 percentage points
Liberal Democrats 10.0% 12.6% -2.6 percentage points
Green Party 9.0% 6.9% +2.1 percentage points
Labour Party 36.0% 34.7% +1.3 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.